Analyzing Exit Poll Accuracy: Comparing 2014 And 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

Here’s an analysis of how accurate exit polls were in predicting the outcomes of the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019:

Exit Polls in 2014: In 2014, exit polls anticipated a victory for the BJP-led NDA but failed to predict the extent of their landslide win.

Predictions for NDA:

1. India Today-Cicero: Predicted 272 seats
2. News 24-Chanakya: 340 seats
3. CNN-IBN-CSDS: 280 seats
4. Times Now ORG: 249 seats
5. ABP News-Nielsen: 274 seats
6. NDTV-Hansa Research: 279 seats

Predictions for UPA:

1. India Today-Cicero: Predicted 115 seats
2. News 24-Chanakya: 101 seats
3. CNN-IBN-CSDS: 97 seats
4. Times Now ORG: 148 seats
5. ABP News-Nielsen: 97 seats
6. NDTV-Hansa Research: 103 seats

Actual Results:

• NDA: Won 336 seats, with BJP securing 282 seats
• UPA: Won 60 seats, with Congress winning 44 seats

Exit Polls in 2019: In 2019, exit polls were more accurate in predicting the outcome of the elections.

Predictions for NDA:

1. India Today-Axis: 339-365 seats
2. News 24-Today’s Chanakya: 350 seats
3. News18-IPSOS: 336 seats
4. Times Now VMR: 306 seats
5. India TV-CNX: 300 seats
6. Sudarshan News: 124 seats

Actual Results:

• NDA: Won 352 seats, with BJP securing 303 seats
• UPA: Won 91 seats, with Congress winning 52 seats

The Election Commission of India will announce the actual results for all 543 parliamentary seats on June 4.