In a tightly contested Haryana assembly election, early trends indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has gained an upper hand, defying the expectations of poll predictions. As of 11 am, the BJP is leading in 47 seats in the 90-member assembly, while Congress trails behind with 36 seats. Despite this, Congress boasts a higher vote share of 40.57% compared to BJP’s 38.80%. However, with the majority mark set at 46 seats, the final outcome remains uncertain.
The closely-fought contest has come as a surprise, as many anticipated a more decisive win for Congress. The party was banking heavily on former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, expecting him to rally Jat, Dalit, and Muslim votes to secure a majority. However, this overdependence on Hooda seems to have backfired, as Congress struggled to make inroads outside these traditional voter bases. The internal party dynamics, including the tensions between Hooda and senior leader Kumari Selja, have also affected the party’s ability to present a unified front.
On the other hand, BJP’s strategy appears to have been more cohesive and effective. The party managed to consolidate non-Jat and non-Muslim votes, particularly from the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), which proved to be a decisive factor. The BJP’s focus on building support in non-Jat regions, especially in eastern and southern Haryana, has paid off. Even in the Jat-dominated western regions, where Congress had hoped to dominate, BJP succeeded in consolidating non-Jat votes, significantly boosting its chances.
Despite facing anti-incumbency sentiments, the BJP managed to counter this by making strategic changes. One notable move was replacing sitting Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, just months before the election. This decision mirrored the BJP’s approach in Uttarakhand in 2022, where the party replaced its leader with a fresh face, helping it win despite anti-incumbency challenges. The Congress, however, failed to adapt in the same way, choosing to rely on Hooda, who was seen by many voters as part of a problematic past, particularly due to perceived corruption and governance issues during his tenure between 2004 and 2014.
The BJP’s focus on improving law and order and delivering better governance over the last decade seems to have resonated with voters, especially in areas outside traditional Jat strongholds. Analysts suggest that Congress’ inability to address infighting, along with its failure to contest as a united force, allowed BJP to maintain its lead. Furthermore, Congress’ decision not to officially declare Hooda as its chief ministerial candidate may have caused confusion and undermined its campaign, while BJP’s clear and decisive leadership gave it an edge.
If the current trends hold, the BJP will secure a third consecutive term in Haryana, proving that its strategic shift and focus on consolidating non-Jat votes has outmaneuvered Congress’ more traditional approach. The elections in Haryana illustrate how critical internal unity and adaptability are in contemporary politics, particularly when facing strong incumbents like the BJP.