In a sharp deviation from most exit polls predicting a landslide victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the saffron party managed to secure only 240 seats in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. The NDA’s overall tally stands at 291, with allies contributing 51 seats.
This muted performance is in stark contrast to the BJP’s resounding success in the 2019 elections, where they secured 303 seats on their own. The current numbers necessitate the party to rely heavily on alliance partners to form the government.
Interestingly, activist and political analyst Yogendra Yadav had accurately predicted such an outcome a week before the counting of votes. “I’ve been saying all along that BJP won’t cross 272, is around 250 and can even fall below 230,” Yadav had told Congress leader Shashi Tharoor, taking into account the potential “last push” of anti-BJP votes during the seventh phase of polling.
Yadav’s assessment proved to be remarkably accurate, as he had stated, “As per the current political situation, the BJP is getting less than 250 seats. And if there is last push (anti-BJP votes) from UP and Bihar during the final phase, and I see the possibility thereof, then NDA may not even get a majority. This will give a possibility of INDIA bloc getting more seats than NDA.”
While the NDA managed to secure a slim majority, the role of alliance partners has become crucial for the BJP’s government formation. Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar and TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu, who recently rejoined the NDA, have emerged as potential kingmakers.
Speculative reports suggest that the Opposition INDIA bloc has also reached out to woo Kumar and Naidu, adding another layer of intrigue to the post-poll scenario.
As the nation awaits the formation of the next government, Yogendra Yadav’s prescient analysis has garnered attention, highlighting the importance of accurate data interpretation and accounting for potential shifts in voter sentiment during crucial electoral phases.