As the U.S. presidential race heats up, former President Donald Trump has signaled his intent to fortify the “great partnership” with India, calling Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “good friend” in a recent Diwali post on X. With less than a week to the elections, Trump’s overtures to the Indian-American community and his strong condemnation of recent violence against Hindus in Bangladesh underscore his campaign’s targeted strategy.
The Trump-Modi Connection: More Than Just Diplomatic Formalities
Trump’s camaraderie with Modi has been anything but subtle. From the “Howdy, Modi!” rally in Texas to the “Namaste Trump” event in Gujarat, both leaders have effectively used large public events to underline their mutual support. This bond is more than just symbolic; it encapsulates their aligned nationalist agendas—Trump’s “America First” echoes Modi’s “India First.” Both leaders prioritize domestic strength, economic nationalism, and a resolute stance on security, making their partnership a dynamic one in the global political landscape.
However, the closeness is not without its complexities. Trump’s promise of closer ties comes with strategic demands, especially on trade. While he lauds Modi’s leadership, Trump has previously called India a “big abuser” of U.S. trade policies due to its high tariffs. Should Trump return to office, he could push India toward more U.S.-centric trade terms, potentially imposing tariffs if India resists. Sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, crucial to Indian exports, could face headwinds, challenging Modi’s government to balance protectionist measures with maintaining a strong bilateral relationship.
A Mixed Bag for India: Opportunities and Tensions
Trump’s policies on China present both challenges and opportunities for India. His emphasis on reducing American reliance on Chinese manufacturing could open doors for India as a preferred destination for American companies looking to diversify supply chains. India, if proactive in offering incentives and addressing structural business hurdles, could emerge as a beneficiary of Trump’s decoupling from China, potentially gaining in terms of jobs, investment, and technological partnerships.
This alignment also extends to defense, where a Trump-led administration would likely reinforce the Quad alliance (comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia) to counterbalance China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. India, facing its own security concerns with China, could see heightened defense cooperation with the U.S., including arms sales, technology transfers, and joint military exercises. In an era where China’s influence is a growing concern, Trump’s approach could bolster India’s defense capabilities, fostering a more balanced power dynamic in the region.
Immigration and Tech Talent: A Complicated Equation
Trump’s stance on immigration, however, is likely to be a double-edged sword for India. His stringent policies on H-1B visas during his previous term significantly impacted Indian professionals, especially in the tech sector, creating barriers for skilled Indian workers in the U.S. If Trump reverts to restrictive immigration policies, it could compel Indian tech firms to recalibrate their U.S.-centric hiring practices and invest more domestically or in other markets.
For the Indian-American community, especially those in technology, Trump’s approach may create concerns about access to U.S. job opportunities. However, this could also drive India’s own tech industry to expand domestically, potentially fostering a stronger homegrown tech ecosystem.
Counter-Terrorism and South Asia: A Potentially Balanced Approach
In South Asia, Trump’s past engagement with Pakistan was marked by a demand for accountability on counter-terrorism, a stance that aligns closely with India’s security interests. Under the banner of “Peace through strength,” Trump may adopt a tougher line on terrorism and extremism, potentially pressuring Pakistan to curb terror activities originating from its territory. For India, which has long grappled with cross-border terrorism, such a shift could signify stronger regional security support from the U.S.
What Lies Ahead?
While Trump’s outreach to Indian-Americans is evident, the broader implications of his return could deeply influence U.S.-India relations. The shared values of nationalism and economic self-sufficiency between Modi and Trump offer a robust foundation for collaboration. Yet, as Trump’s stance on tariffs, immigration and regional security indicate, the partnership will not come without its set of negotiations and potential friction points.
In the final stretch of the election, Trump’s rhetoric around India underscores his recognition of the Indian-American community’s growing influence in the U.S. electorate. Whether this diplomatic dance will translate into sustained, mutually beneficial policies remains uncertain. However, one thing is clear: Trump’s narrative around India is as much about geopolitics as it is about the ballot.