The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections have become a political spectacle, with exit polls hinting at a possible landslide victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Yet, these projections raise as many questions as they attempt to answer, leaving room for speculation on how the final results on November 23 will shape not only the state but the nation’s political trajectory.
Mahayuti’s Projected Dominance: Will It Hold?
Six out of nine exit polls have boldly predicted a comfortable majority for the Mahayuti, with estimates ranging from 122 to 195 seats. Surveys like those from Poll Diary and Chanakya Strategies forecast the BJP emerging as the largest single party, securing anywhere between 77 and 108 seats. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction is also projected to claim a significant share, with some polls estimating 27–50 seats.
Notably, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, despite its controversial defection, is tipped to win 18–28 seats, bolstering Mahayuti’s hold over urban and semi-urban constituencies. On the other hand, CNX surveys predict a sweeping win, projecting 160–179 seats for the alliance, signaling dominance across diverse voter bases.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi’s Narrow Path
While the Mahayuti enjoys a favorable outlook, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction—has shown resilience in certain exit polls. Two polls, SAS Group and Electoral Age, go against the grain, predicting 147–155 seats for the MVA, with the Congress likely to emerge as its leading force with 28–63 seats. The Shiv Sena (UBT), led by Uddhav Thackeray, and Sharad Pawar’s faction of the NCP are projected to win 16–40 seats combined, reflecting a fragmented yet persistent base of support.
Interestingly, Lok Shahi Marathi-Rudra predicts a hung assembly, envisioning both alliances within striking distance of forming the government. Such a scenario would usher in political chaos, with post-poll negotiations taking center stage.
What’s at Stake for Mahayuti and MVA?
The stakes couldn’t be higher for both camps. For the BJP, a decisive victory would solidify its grip on Maharashtra—a state often seen as the economic and political bellwether of India. It would also provide crucial momentum for the 2024 general elections, showcasing its strategy of exploiting opposition splits while championing economic growth and infrastructure development.
For the MVA, a surprise win could breathe new life into an embattled opposition, especially after facing defections and leadership challenges. However, the MVA’s inability to present a cohesive narrative beyond anti-incumbency remains a glaring weakness. Internal rifts, such as the Shiv Sena split and the NCP factional divide, have diluted their collective strength.
Voter Sentiments: The Rural-Urban Divide
The slightly reduced voter turnout of 58.43%, down from previous elections, offers insights into shifting dynamics. Rural constituencies, where anti-incumbency against the Mahayuti government is reportedly higher, have seen stronger participation. These swing zones may hold the key to the final outcome. Conversely, urban centers like Mumbai and Pune appear to favor the BJP-led alliance, signaling the Mahayuti’s appeal among middle-class and youth voters.
An Opinion: A Litmus Test for National Politics
The Maharashtra elections are no ordinary state contest—they are a microcosm of India’s evolving political chessboard. A Mahayuti landslide would signal a clear voter mandate for stability and growth-focused governance, further isolating an already divided opposition. On the flip side, an MVA upset or hung assembly would be a wake-up call for the BJP, forcing the party to recalibrate its strategy ahead of the general elections.
Regardless of the outcome, the elections have highlighted the growing interplay of local and national politics. The BJP’s reliance on factional splits and alliances may work in the short term but could also alienate long-standing allies in the long run. Meanwhile, the MVA’s survival hinges on its ability to offer more than criticism, evolving into a credible alternative.
As counting day approaches, one thing is certain: Maharashtra’s verdict will not only decide the state’s leadership but also serve as a harbinger of what lies ahead for Indian democracy. Whether Mahayuti secures its clean sweep or the MVA stages a dramatic comeback, the implications will echo far beyond the state’s borders.