In a series of high-profile election forecasts, psephologist-turned-politician Yogendra Yadav has joined Prashant Kishor and US poll expert Ian Bremmer in predicting another general election victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). According to Yadav, while the BJP is set to triumph, there is a silver lining for the Congress party in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections: its seat tally might touch 100.
Kishor, who has faced backlash on social media for his pro-BJP predictions, supported Yadav’s seat forecast. He noted that Yadav predicts the BJP will secure between 240-260 seats, with its allies winning an additional 34-45 seats. This means the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could end up with a total of 275-305 seats.
“A trusted face among those who understand elections and socio-political issues in the country, Yogendra Yadav, has shared his ‘final assessment’ of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections,” Kishor wrote on X. “According to Yogendra ji, BJP may get 240-260 seats and NDA’s allies may get 35-45 seats in these elections. Meaning 275-305 seats for BJP/NDA. To form the government in the country, 272 seats are required and BJP/NDA has 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha. (Shiv Sena won 18 seats as part of NDA but is no longer with them). Now assess yourself whose government is being formed. On June 4, we will know who is talking about whom.”
Yadav’s analysis also suggests that the Congress is likely to win between 85 and 100 seats, a notable increase from the 52 seats it won in the 2019 general elections. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc, which aims to counter the BJP’s dominance, is expected to secure 120-135 seats.
Kishor echoed Yadav’s sentiments in an interview earlier this week, stating that the BJP would comfortably surpass the majority mark due to a lack of significant dissatisfaction against the ruling party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.