Vote Transfer Key Challenge For NDA In Maharashtra: Can BJP Mobilize Sena And NCP Supporters?

As the NDA’s campaign in Maharashtra gathers pace, all eyes are on how the alliance will manage its candidate selection process and address the challenges that affected its Lok Sabha performance.

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As Maharashtra prepares for the 2024 assembly elections, political activity is gaining momentum. Six major parties are set to contest, but the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is making an all-out effort to project strength and unity. Despite its underwhelming performance in the state during the Lok Sabha elections, the NDA is optimistic about its prospects in the upcoming assembly polls.

The ruling coalition, known as the “Mahayuti” in Maharashtra, is set to run a unified campaign, a strategy expected to lift the spirits of its workers. The alliance, which includes the BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, is engaged in fine-tuning its electoral strategy for all 288 assembly constituencies.

A crucial BJP central election committee (CEC) meeting was held on Wednesday, October 16, in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to sources from News18, the BJP is planning to field candidates in 115 to 120 seats. While discussions are still underway to finalize the remaining seats, the alliance has already settled on 240 constituencies. A senior BJP source told News18, “We have already decided on 240 seats in the alliance, and in the next couple of days, the remaining 48-odd seats will be decided.”

Unlike the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP does not plan to field sitting MPs or those who failed to secure a ticket in the recent elections. Confident that its “course correction” over the past months has yielded a stronger candidate lineup, the party expects to announce its first list of candidates within the next 24 to 48 hours.

The division of seats within the alliance will be based on regional strengths. For instance, the Shiv Sena is expected to contest most seats in Marathwada, while the BJP and NCP will focus on Vidarbha and Mumbai. A BJP spokesperson explained, “We have to do a very scientific calculation. It’s natural that there will be contests between the two Senas and the two NCP factions. In many constituencies, we could also see a direct fight between the BJP and Congress.”

A key concern for the Mahayuti is ensuring the transfer of votes between the alliance partners, something that did not go as expected in the Lok Sabha elections. A BJP MP, who lost in the recent elections, told News18, “While leaders joined the alliance, their votes didn’t follow. For example, the Shiv Sena came, but the ‘shivsainik’ did not.” Nonetheless, the NDA is working hard to overcome this challenge by mobilizing support for its new partners.

Party insiders, according to News18, also revealed that BJP leaders, including Bhupender Yadav, are already on the ground to address potential issues that might arise from ticket distribution. The NDA is mindful of possible dissent from party members who do not receive tickets, especially in a party as large as the BJP. “Senior leaders who have dealt with Maharashtra politics in the past are working to mitigate any crisis that may arise from potential rebellions over ticket allocations,” a Maharashtra BJP leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, told News18.

The upcoming swearing-in ceremony of Haryana’s chief minister, which will be attended by NDA leaders from across the country, including Maharashtra, could see further discussions between BJP’s top brass — Prime Minister Modi, BJP president JP Nadda, and Union Home Minister Amit Shah — and their Maharashtra counterparts. Following this meeting, more clarity is expected on the alliance’s strategy. “After everything is finalized, we will hold a press conference in Mumbai to declare the full details of our alliance,” a BJP office-bearer told News18.

As the NDA’s campaign in Maharashtra gathers pace, all eyes are on how the alliance will manage its candidate selection process and address the challenges that affected its Lok Sabha performance. With the first list of candidates expected soon, the countdown to one of the most anticipated assembly elections in the country has officially begun.