With the Bihar assembly elections around the corner, political speculation is intensifying as the Election Commission is expected to announce polling dates next week. Voting is likely to take place either at the end of October or the beginning of November, setting the stage for a high-stakes contest across the state.

Fresh opinion polls reveal a dynamic and closely fought race. According to the SPICK Media Network survey, the NDA alliance is projected to secure a clear majority with around 158 seats and 46% vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to win 66 seats with 41% votes. The Jan Suraj Party could see 8% of the votes, though without translating into seats. When asked about their preferred choice for chief minister, 30.5% of respondents backed Tejashwi Yadav, slightly ahead of Nitish Kumar at 27.4%.

SPICK Media Network Party-Wise Projection:

NDA: 158 seats (46%)

Grand Alliance: 66 seats (41%)

Jan Suraj: 0 seats (8%)

BSP: 1 seat

AIMIM: 4 seats

People’s CM Choice:

Tejashwi Yadav – 30.5%

Nitish Kumar – 27.4%

Prashant Kishor – 13%

Chirag Paswan – 12%

Meanwhile, the JVC opinion poll paints a slightly different picture. It predicts the NDA winning between 131-150 seats, with Mahagathbandhan securing 81-103 seats. Nitish Kumar emerges as the most popular choice for chief minister, while Tejashwi Yadav shows a minor decline in popularity. The Jan Suraj Party could gain a vote share of 10-11%, potentially converting to 4-6 seats.

JVC Party-Wise Projection:

NDA: 131-150 seats (41-45%)

Grand Alliance: 81-103 seats (37-40%)

Jan Suraj: 4-6 seats (10-11%)

People’s CM Choice:

Nitish Kumar – 27%

Tejashwi Yadav – 25%

Prashant Kishor – 15%

Chirag Paswan – 11%

Samrat Choudhary – 8%

As Bihar gears up for its next assembly polls, the battle for the CM post and the fight for the state’s political future promises to be closely contested, with the electorate’s choice between experience and change hanging in the balance.