In a surprising turn of events, the latest election trends show the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP surging ahead, crossing the majority mark of 272 seats. As per the Election Commission trends on 542 Lok Sabha seats so far, the NDA is leading in 296 seats with the BJP itself ahead in 238 constituencies.
This performance defies the predictions of most exit polls which had projected a comfortable victory for the NDA alliance but not such a massive lead over the opposition INDIA alliance which is currently leading in only 228 seats.
The unexpected trends have raised speculation that influential regional parties like Nitish Kumar's JD(U) in Bihar, Chandrababu Naidu's TDP in Andhra Pradesh and H.D. Deve Gowda's JD(S) in Karnataka may rethink their alliances with the NDA if the final results mirror the current scoreline.
In Bihar, the JD(U) is leading in a remarkable 14 out of the 16 seats it contested while its senior alliance partner BJP is ahead in just 11 of the state's 40 Lok Sabha seats. Similarly, the TDP in Andhra Pradesh is showing a strong performance leading in 14 of the 25 parliamentary constituencies there.
The JD(S) is also springing a surprise in Karnataka leading in 2 of the 3 seats it contested as part of the BJP alliance in the state. Analysts believe leaders like Kumar, Naidu and Gowda may have greater bargaining leverage to switch camps to the INDIA alliance if their strong performances are replicated in the final tally.
Such potential realignments could dramatically alter the balance of power and even ease the path for an INDIA alliance government at the center, should these regional parties withdraw support from the BJP-led NDA.
While the BJP looks set to emerge as the single largest party, its allies appear to be emerging as potential kingmakers holding keys to the formation of the next government.
As the official counting progresses, all eyes are on these regional satraps who may hold the decisive vote to determine who will eventually lead the new government at the center.
