Tensions in the Gulf region deepened on Monday as Iranian state media reported that Tehran is actively considering the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil shipments — in retaliation to recent U.S. airstrikes on three of its nuclear sites.

The Strait, just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point and with only a 3-kilometer navigable channel in either direction, serves as the lifeline for nearly 20% of global oil and gas trade. Any attempt to block it could send shockwaves through international energy markets and ignite a full-scale geopolitical crisis.

Strategic Significance of the Strait

Located between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, the Strait of Hormuz is essential for energy exports from key Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran itself. Most of their crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments are routed through this passage, making it one of the most strategically important waterways in the world.

Analysts warn that even a partial disruption in shipping activity could choke energy supply chains and prompt immediate price spikes.

Asia Stands Most Exposed

While Western nations once bore the brunt of Hormuz-related tensions, the balance has shifted. Today, Asian economies — particularly India and China — rely heavily on crude oil passing through the strait. For India, approximately 2 million barrels per day out of its 5.5 million daily crude imports come via Hormuz.

Despite the looming threat, Indian officials remain cautiously optimistic. A senior energy ministry source said, “India has strengthened its energy security in recent years. We have alternative routes and partnerships ready.”

India's Diversified Energy Strategy

India’s pivot toward multiple sources has reduced its vulnerability. Since 2022, Russia has emerged as a top supplier, delivering oil through routes not tied to Hormuz — such as the Suez Canal, or via tankers around the Cape of Good Hope.

On the gas front, India’s primary supplier Qatar has shipping routes that avoid the strait entirely. Moreover, LNG imports from Australia, the U.S., and Russia also remain unaffected by potential disruptions in the Gulf.

Oil Prices Likely to React

While India’s energy supply remains largely insulated for now, global oil prices are expected to climb in response to rising uncertainties. Experts predict Brent crude could surge to $80 or beyond in the short term if the threat escalates or is carried out.