The BJP, still reeling from its setbacks in Maharashtra during the Lok Sabha elections, is confronting another significant challenge as the state prepares for assembly polls later this year. The ongoing Maratha quota protest, led by activist Manoj Jarange, is emerging as a potential stumbling block that could complicate the party's prospects.

In February, the 'Mahayuti' government?comprising the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), and the NCP (Ajit Pawar)?passed the Maratha Reservation Bill, granting 10% reservation to the Maratha community in education and government jobs. However, Jarange, who spearheads the Maratha quota agitation, insists that the government include 'Sage Soyare' in its notification to recognize all Marathas as Kunbis, thereby including them under the OBC quota.

Jarange had suspended his indefinite fast earlier this month after discussions with the government, setting a deadline of July 13 for the Eknath Shinde administration to meet his demands. He warned of launching a political campaign and organizing rallies from July 6 if his demands were not met. One of Jarange's primary demands is the issuance of OBC certificates to all blood relatives of Marathas recognized as Kunbis.

However, BJP leader and Eknath Shinde Cabinet minister, Girish Mhajan, has expressed doubts about the legal feasibility of meeting Jarange's demand. This standoff poses a significant threat to the BJP. If Jarange decides to field candidates in all 288 assembly seats, it could severely damage the party's electoral prospects. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)?comprising the Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction)?is already optimistic about winning 150 seats, buoyed by the recent Lok Sabha election results.

Marathas, who make up over 30% of Maharashtra's population, are primarily concentrated in the Marathwada region. The influence of Jarange's protest was likely a factor in the BJP's poor performance in this area during the Lok Sabha elections. The Mahayuti coalition faces particular concern over the 48 assembly seats in Marathwada, having lost 7 of the 8 Lok Sabha seats in the region. Notably, the defeat of BJP's five-time MP from Jalna, Raosaheb Dadarao Danve Patil, underscores the significant impact of the Maratha quota agitation, as Jalna was a focal point of the protests.

Moreover, Ajit Pawar's NCP presence in the Mahayuti has not been without complications, with the RSS cadre showing reluctance to campaign for a 'Pawar'. Additionally, the BJP faces internal dissatisfaction from Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena regarding Cabinet portfolio allocations and campaign strategies for the Lok Sabha polls, which have strained the alliance.

In this complex scenario, Jarange's decision to field candidates in the Maharashtra Assembly polls could further exacerbate the challenges for the BJP-led Mahayuti, potentially altering the political landscape in western India.