As the assembly election results for both Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir are set to be declared on October 8, anticipation is building around the release of exit polls. Historically, the accuracy of exit polls in these regions has varied, with some offering precise predictions while others have fallen short.

In Haryana, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is eyeing a third term in power, while the Congress hopes to regain control after a decade. Exit polls have played a significant role in shaping expectations for the outcome, but how well have they matched the actual results?

Haryana: A Mixed Record for Exit Polls

In the 2014 Haryana assembly elections, held on October 15, exit polls largely predicted a BJP victory. Pollsters such as India TV ? CVoter, ABP News ? Nielsen, Times Now, and News 24 ? Chanakya projected seat ranges from 37 to 52 for the BJP. The actual results aligned closely, with the BJP winning 47 seats, and the party formed the government under Manohar Lal Khattar. The state saw a voter turnout of 76.54%, setting a record.

However, in 2019, exit polls for Haryana were far less accurate. While the BJP again emerged as the largest party, winning 40 seats, most exit polls had predicted a much higher number. ABP News-CVoter projected as many as 78 seats for the BJP, while Republic - Jan Ki Baat estimated between 58 and 70 seats. The discrepancy between the predicted and actual outcomes highlighted the challenges pollsters face in gauging public sentiment, especially in states with a diverse electorate. Despite this, the BJP formed the government by allying with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and seven independents.

Jammu & Kashmir: A Challenging Terrain for Pollsters

Exit polls for Jammu & Kashmir, particularly in 2014, also displayed a mixed record. Pollsters like C-Voter Exit Poll had predicted a BJP surge, estimating the party would win between 27 and 33 seats. While the BJP did perform well, winning 25 seats, it fell short of some predictions. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as the largest party with 28 seats, while the National Conference (NC) and Congress won 15 and 12 seats, respectively.

In earlier elections, such as in 2008, exit polls had projected a strong performance by the National Conference in the Kashmir Valley and the Congress in the Jammu region. The actual results confirmed these trends, and a coalition between the NC and Congress was formed, with Omar Abdullah becoming the state's youngest chief minister.

Conclusion: Exit Polls ? A Tool, But Not Always Spot-On

The exit polls for Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have been a mix of accurate predictions and significant deviations. While they offer valuable insights into voter sentiment, the actual election outcomes often bring surprises. As the polls close and the exit poll results are eagerly awaited, it remains to be seen how well they will predict the outcomes for the 2024 assembly elections in both regions. The stakes are high, and the public, as always, remains the final arbiter.